Breeders’ Cup Betting Preview: Improbable Is A Probability

Posted By Drew Ellis on November 5, 2020

One of the annual premier events in horse racing is set to take place this weekend.

A total of 14 races will be held at the 2020 Breeders’ Cup in Lexington, KY. Races begin on Friday and continue through Saturday, culminating with the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

It’s a great betting event for Iowans who love horse race betting. Several Iowa casinos host simulcast horse racing for those looking to get in on the Breeders’ Cup action. Wild Rose casinos, which also hosts simulcast greyhound racing, are located in Emmetsburg, Jefferson and Clinton.

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How to watch the 2020 Breeders’ Cup

What: 2020 Breeders’ Cup

When: Friday, Nov. 6, and Saturday, Nov. 7

Where: Keeneland in Lexington, KY

Friday’s Schedule and Post Times (TV Coverage):

  • Juvenile Turf Sprint – 1:30 p.m. CST (NBCSN)
  • Juvenile Fillies Turf – 2:10 p.m. (NBCSN)
  • Juvenile Fillies – 2:50 p.m. (NBCSN)
  • Juvenile Turf – 3:30 p.m. (NBCSN)
  • Juvenile – 4:10 p.m. (NBCSN)

Saturday’s Schedule and Post Times (TV Coverage):

  • Filly and Mare Sprint – 11:02 a.m. (NBCSN)
  • Turf Sprint – 11:39 a.m. (NBCSN)
  • Dirt Mile – 12:18 p.m. (NBCSN)
  • Filly and Mare Turf – 12:57 p.m. (NBCSN)
  • Sprint – 1:36 p.m. (NBC)
  • Mile – 2:15 p.m. (NBC)
  • Distaff – 2:54 p.m. (NBC)
  • Turf – 3:33 p.m. (NBC)
  • Classic – 4:13 p.m. (NBC)

Co-favorites to win Breeders’ Cup Classic

The biggest race of the weekend is the Classic, a 1¼-mile race for 3-year-olds and up. Post time is scheduled for 4:13 p.m. CST.

Improbable is the current favorite to take home the race’s $6 million purse. Here’s a quick look at TVG’s odds for the race:

  • Improbable: 4/1
  • Tiz the Law: 9/2
  • Authentic: 5/1
  • Maximum Security: 6/1
  • Toms D’Etat: 10/1
  • Charlatan: 10/1

The latest TVG odds has co-favorites of Tiz the Law and Improbable. Maximum Security and Authentic are also among the favorites.

Tiz the Law has had a great 2020 with four victories, including the Travers Stakes in August. The 3-year-old colt followed it up by finishing second in September’s Kentucky Derby.

Improbable is a 4-year-old colt that is trained by the legendary Bob Baffert. He has won his last three races, including a win over Maximum Security in late September.

Despite the recent loss, Maximum Security seems to bring a lot of value. The 4-year-old colt has won three of its four races this year, including the Saudi Cup. In 13 career starts, Maximum Security hasn’t finished worse than second in all but one race.

Will it be a Magical Turf race on Saturday?

Prior to the Classic, the Breeders’ Cup Turf will take place at 3:33 p.m. CT. It’s a 1½-mile race for horses 3 years and older, being run on the turf.

TVG oddsmakers are listing Magical as the favorite at 5/1 to win. Mogul has the next shortest odds at 10/1.

Magical is the favorite due in part to trainer Aidan O’Brien being a record six-time winner of this race while jockey Ryan Moore has won it four times. The 5-year-old mare has three wins on the year, including the Irish Champion Stakes.

Mogul is a 3-year-old colt that has won two of four races this year, most recently the Grand Prix de Paris in September.

Two clear favorites in Breeders’ Cup Distaff

The Breeders’ Cup Distaff will be the third-to-last race of the weekend. With a post time of 2:54 p.m. CST, the 1 1/8-mile race is for fillies and mares.

Oddsmakers see two horses as the likely winners. Monomoy Girl is the favorite with 7/4 odds. Gamine has 9/2 odds and Swiss Skydiver is 6/1.

This race has produced a lot of winners that were among the favorites. The betting favorite has won 16 of the 36 races, while 26 winners had odds below 5-1.

Monomoy Girl, a 5-year-old mare, was the champion of the 3-year-old filly race back in 2018 here and has won nine of her last 10 races overall.

Swiss Skydiver, a 3-year-old filly, has finished first or second in its last seven races, including a pair of wins this year. The most notable win was the 2020 Preakness Stakes, which was held in October.

Photo by AP Photo / Steve Helber
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Drew Ellis

Drew Ellis has lived in Michigan his whole life and has been writing professionally 21 years. Ellis has covered anything from youth baseball in mid-Michigan, a top-25 college football program, and pro sports in the Detroit area. Always keeping busy, Ellis also has over 10 years of experience in covering sports betting, handling all major sports.

View all posts by Drew Ellis