Iowa is one of a many states legalizing sports betting. You have a significant amount of betting options because mobile wagering is legal in Iowa, and those markets cover a wide range of sports on Iowa online betting apps.
Ever since legal sports betting commenced in the Hawkeye State in August 2019, various sports are now fan-favorites for Iowans. Despite the state not hosting a major league team, betting on pro baseball is still wildly popular.
There are a variety of baseball betting options that can be lucrative; one of those is the run lines market.
This is different from betting the moneyline, which is the easiest form of wagering to understand. It only requires you to choose which side will win a given game. Betting run lines involve a team needing to win or lose by a certain amount of runs in order to win the wager.
Below, we’ll tell you all you need to know about how to bet on run lines in baseball.
The run line is a figure set by oddsmakers that tells bettors how much a team needs to win or lose to be a successful bet. Does that sound familiar? Because it should, even if the term “run line” is not as well known as some others among bettors.
One way to understand the run line bet is to find its counterpart in other sports. When betting on basketball and football, the main bet types are the moneyline, point spread and total. Think of the run line as baseball’s version of a point spread.
The process of betting on the run line isn’t all that dissimilar to wagering against the spread in other sports, such as the NFL and NBA. But at the same time, there are other elements to the run line that make it unique.
With a run line, the standard spread is always 1.5 runs. The favorite will be -1.5 runs and will need to win by two or more to be graded as a successful bet. The underdog is +1.5 and will have to win the game or lose by just a single run to earn a payout.
The biggest difference between run lines and conventional point spread betting is that in other sports, the spreads vary wildly based on the quality of the two teams. For an NFL or NBA game, if the favorite is -7 (-110), the other side is +7 (-110). The spreads are the same on both sides and on most occasions, the prices that come with those spreads are very close, if not identical.
This is where run lines stray from the point spreads we see in basketball and football. The run line is the same for every game at 1.5 runs. To account for the difference in the quality of baseball teams, the potential risk and payout are what varies, rather than the line itself.
There is no better teacher for how to bet on run lines than an example, and we take the following one from FanDuel Sportsbook in Iowa:
|Baltimore Orioles||+1.5 (+120)||+230||Over 9 (-108)|
|Tampa Bay Rays||-1.5 (-142)||-270||Under 9 (-114)|
In this matchup, the Rays are the favorite at -1.5 (-142) and the Orioles are the underdog at +1.5 runs (+120).
A wager on the Rays’ run line means that Tampa Bay must win by two or more runs to “cover” the line and earn the payout. A bet on the Orioles’ run line would require Baltimore to win the game or lose by just a single run to be a winning wager.
As is the case with moneylines, the payouts accompanying the run line should be thought of relative to the number 100. This is the easiest way to calculate potential risks and losses.
When betting favorites, bettors are risking the number next to the run line to win $100. You must stake $142 to win $100 or $14.20 to win $10 on the Rays at -1.5 runs.
With underdogs, the run line is what the bettor stands to win if staking $100. A wager on Baltimore at +1.5 means a $100 bet would win $120, or a $10 bet would win $12.
We can tell how big of a favorite or underdog one team is by looking at the moneyline . The Rays are huge favorites at -270, and the Orioles are sizable underdogs at +230. Checking out the moneyline, even if you aren’t betting on it, will help put the price of the run line into context.
When betting run lines on favorites, the price drops dramatically and the payout is better. When taking run lines on the underdog, the extra run provides some cushion but the payout is considerably worse.
This is because runs can come at a premium in Major League Baseball, making each bet valuable.
Remember when we said that all run lines are 1.5? While that is the standard line you’ll see when you open up your Iowa sportsbook apps, that statement is only partially true.
While standard run lines do begin at 1.5, most sportsbooks also offer alternate run line betting options for MLB games. These are exactly what the name suggests: run lines with an alternate spread.
Depending on the sportsbook, you may be able to take favorites at -2.5 runs, -3.5 runs, or more if they are expecting a blowout. This strategy involves selling runs in exchange for higher odds. The bigger the spread on the run line, the larger the payout.
Using our FanDuel odds from above, the Rays are -270 on the moneyline when they only need to win by a single run, but they are -142 when they need to win by two or more. Those odds will continue to become more favorable with each increased run the bettor gives away.
On the other side, underdogs are available at +2.5, +3.5 or more. But it should be noted that the more runs the bettor buys, the worse the payout becomes in exchange for the security those extra runs provide.
The Orioles are +230 on the moneyline in our example when they need to win the game to cash the ticket. But at +1.5, the sports odds lessen to +120, and they’ll continue to lower with each additional run added to the run line.
Gambling on run lines in baseball isn’t the same as wagering on point spreads in other sports, so it helps to have a plan of action. Keep the following baseball run line betting strategies in mind when putting your money on baseball: