Super Bowl Odds Won’t Change Much After The 2022 NFL Schedule Release. Here’s Why.

Written By Russ Mitchell on May 11, 2022 - Last Updated on May 12, 2022
2022 Schedule Release

The 2022 NFL schedule release will cause a social media ripple at 7 p.m. Thursday and Iowa’s NFL fans can even toggle between the two-hour reveal special on ESPN2 or three hours of analysis on NFL Network/FS1.

Who got the primetime games? When does the bye week fall? Is the schedule frontloaded or backloaded? Which game deserves a road trip?

As fans search for answers, the experts who set odds for Iowa’s sportsbooks take Thursday’s NFL news nugget in stride. Don’t expect odds to keep pace with the 2022 NFL schedule release fanfare.

Why the 2022 NFL schedule doesn’t jolt Super Bowl odds

Once each NFL team’s season ends, they already know their home-and-away opponents for the following season. Thursday’s schedule release merely assigns the dates.

“We bake a lot of the schedule already into the Super Bowl outright markets,” Kevin Hennessy, FanDuel’s director of publicity told PlayIA. “Movement may come in the season win total markets when things like bye weeks are laid out and travel is considered.”

The FanDuel projections for season win totals on Wednesday look like this:

  • O/U 11.5 wins — Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

*Season win totals explained: Betting the over means you think the Bills will win 12 games or more in the regular season. An “under” bet wins if Buffalo has 11 wins or less in 2022. Remember, teams play a 17-game schedule now.

  • 10.5 — Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, LA Rams
  • 10 — LA Chargers
  • 9.5 — Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans
  • 8.5 — Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Commanders
  • 8 — Las Vegas Raiders
  • 7.5 — NY Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers
  • 6.5 — Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars
  • 5.5 — Carolina Panthers, NY Jets, Seattle Seahawks
  • 4.5 — Atlanta Falcons
  • 3.5 — Houston Texans
  • No line — Cleveland Browns
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We already know some 2022 NFL schedule decisions

The league released a few dates ahead of the entire 18-week schedule. During the NFL Draft for example, we learned that Kansas City will host the LA Chargers on Sept. 15 for Amazon Prime’s Thursday night debut in Week 2. The Chiefs at Buccaneers game on Oct. 2 was announced early for Sunday Night Football in Week 4 as well.

Also in Week 2, the NFL announced an overlapping doubleheader for Monday Night Football. Titans at Bills begins at 6:15 p.m. Sept. 19 on ESPN. The Vikings visit the Eagles at 7:30 p.m. on ABC.

We know the 8:30 a.m. Sunday games in London as well:

  • Oct. 2 (Week 4) — Vikings at Saints
  • Oct. 9 (Week 5) — Giants at Packers
  • Oct. 30 (Week 8) — Broncos at Jaguars

Two games are set for Week 10 on Nov. 13. Packers host the Cowboys and the NFL will make its German debut with the Buccaneers playing the Seahawks in Munich.

The Nov. 21 Monday Night Football game will take place in Mexico City featuring the 49ers at Cardinals in Week 11.

As for holidays:

  • The Bengals appear to be the opponent for the Thanksgiving game in Dallas.
  • The Commanders could be going to Detroit for Thanksgiving, but the Dolphins are getting some Twitter mentions as well.
  • The third turkey game is likely Bills at Ravens.
  • The NFL will have a tripleheader on Christmas Day and we know one game. Denver visits the LA Rams at 3:30 p.m. with CBS and Nickelodeon carrying the game.
  • “Schedule-leak Twitter” thinks Raiders at Titans is another Christmas game.

For Super Bowl bets, check rosters, not the 2022 NFL schedule

As we mentioned, the biggest odds shakeups have nothing to do with Thursday’s schedule assignments. Seamus Magee at BetMGM tells us the following teams have made the biggest moves since Super Bowl LVI:

  • Bills — from +750 to +650
  • Buccaneers — from +2500 to +750 because Tom Brady reversed his retirement decision.
  • Packers — from +1600 to +1100 because they kept Aaron Rodgers in the fold.
  • Bengals from +1200 to +2500

“Injuries will have the biggest impact on future odds — especially if a quarterback were to miss extended time,” Magee told PlayIA. “Baker Mayfield could also find a new team, which would impact futures for his new squad.”

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Russ Mitchell

Russ Mitchell has been covering news and sports in northwest Iowa since 1997, including 11 years as managing editor for one of the most acclaimed community newspapers in the state. He looks forward to keeping readers up to date on the growing sportsbook industry in Iowa.

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