Iowa State’s Big 12 Championship Game Odds Are A Long Shot

Written By Russ Mitchell on November 18, 2021 - Last Updated on November 19, 2021

With an average moneyline of +2760, Iowa State’s national championship odds were shorter in August than the Cyclones’ Big 12 Conference Championship odds (+15000) are right now.

That means two things:

  1. The team that brought just about everyone back from a Fiesta Bowl Championship season hasn’t met preseason expectations.
  2. A lot has to go right for the Cyclones to reach second place and earn a spot in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game.

But, the good news is: Iowa State has a pain reliever game in this headache of a season. A win Saturday over No. 13 Oklahoma in Norman would be the quiet, dark room that makes fans who bet on Iowa State feel better.

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How to watch:

  • What: Iowa State (6-4, 4-3 in the Big 12) at Oklahoma (9-1, 6-1)
  • When11 a.m. Saturday
  • Where: Memorial Stadium in Norman, OK
  • TV: Fox

Fox Sports is bringing its Big Noon Kickoff show to Oklahoma for the Iowa State game. Expect both teams to be a little cranky. The Sooners suffered a 27-14 setback to then-No. 13 Baylor. Iowa State lost 41-38 on a 62-yard field goal by Jonathan Garibay as time expired. Disappointment is part of the business, Iowa State coach Matt Campbell told reporters.

“You’ve got to figure out the ‘why’ and you’ve got to figure out, then, how you move forward from it.”

Iowa State Big 12 Championship update

The top two teams in the conference face each other Saturday, Dec. 4 for a bid to the Sugar Bowl. The Cyclones mathematically still have a chance at the second-place spot. But they’ll be trying to reach the Arlington, TX shelf while standing tippy-toe on a chair with a broken leg. Here’s a look at the conference standings and remaining games.

TeamConference RecordSaturday,
Nov. 20
Saturday,
Nov. 27
(unless noted)
Key Tiebreaker win(s)
No. 9 Oklahoma State6-1at Texas Tech
7 p.m. Fox
Oklahoma
6:30 p.m. ABC
Kansas State, Baylor
No. 13 Oklahoma6-1Iowa State
11 a.m. Fox
at Oklahoma State
6:30 p.m. ABC
Kansas State
No. 11 Baylor5-2at Kansas State
4:30 p.m. FS1
Texas Tech
(TBA) FS1
Iowa State, Oklahoma
Iowa State4-3at Oklahoma
11 a.m. Fox
(11/26) TCU
3:30 p.m. FS1
Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Kansas State4-3Baylor
4:30 p.m. FS1
(11/26) at Texas
11 a.m. Fox
None

Iowa State’s upset losses to West Virginia (38-31 on Oct. 30) and Texas Tech didn’t help. But the real damage happened Sept. 25 when Baylor stopped a two-point try with :24 left for a 31-29 win over the Cyclones. Iowa State still trails the Bears by one game and Baylor holds the tiebreaker.

Iowa State Big 12 Championship scenarios

Ryan Aber of The Oklahoman worked out all of the Big 12 outcomes for the four teams still alive to play at AT&T Stadium. His work is worth any Big 12 fan’s time. Specifically for Iowa State:

  • The Cyclones need to end the regular season with two wins. (None of this matters otherwise.)
  • Baylor has to lose at Kansas State this weekend.

Then, after Thanksgiving:

  • Oklahoma State has to match what they did in the previous game. If the Cowboys beat Texas Tech  they also have to beat Oklahoma in Bedlam on Thanksgiving weekend.
  • It would be an upset, but if Oklahoma State loses to Texas Tech, they have to lose again to the Sooners.
  • If the Cowboys win twice, Baylor has to lose twice to end the regular season.

It’s all about the combinations:

  • An Oklahoma-Iowa State-Baylor tie at 6-3 leaves the Cyclones out. So, the Bears would need to lose twice to fall behind the Cyclones in the standings.
  • But an Oklahoma State-Iowa State-Baylor tie for second place gets the Cyclones in if all of the teams are 6-3.

Big 12 Championship odds

Sportsbooks in Iowa still have Kansas State listed, but tiebreakers appear to prevent the Wildcats from reaching the championship game.

Iowa State bowl projections

This week’s bowl-guessers still place Iowa State a tier down from the Sugar Bowl and Alamo Bowl. In fact, the loss to Texas Tech didn’t create a whole lot of movement.

Cheez-It Bowl (Dec. 29 in Orlando)

  • Jerry Palm at CBS — vs. Clemson
  • Steven Lassan at Athlon Sports — vs. Pitt
  • Erick Smith at USA Today — vs. North Carolina State
  • Brad Crawford at 247Sports — vs. Clemson
  • Bill Bender at Sporting News — vs. North Carolina

Texas Bowl (Jan. 4 in Houston)

  • Kyle Bonagura at ESPN — vs. Auburn
  • College Football News — vs. Arkansas
  • Mark Schlabach at ESPN — vs. Arkansas
  • Stewart Mandel at The Athletic — vs. Texas A&M
Photo by Jeffrey McWhorter / AP Photo
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Russ Mitchell

Russ Mitchell has been covering news and sports in northwest Iowa since 1997, including 11 years as managing editor for one of the most acclaimed community newspapers in the state. He looks forward to keeping readers up to date on the growing sportsbook industry in Iowa.

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